Current polling has Labour with an increased party vote
share from 2014. With that usually comes a few more electorate wins but which
ones will change hands and more importantly which will have an impact on the
make-up of parliament?
Much is made of swing-states or swing seats in the US and
UK, the US election generally hinges on a few states such as Florida that
determine the outcome of the election as the other states are reliably red or
blue. New Zealand, being under MMP, has proportional representation so
electorates do not tend to have a significant impact on the overall makeup of
parliament apart from their ability to bring in parties polling below 5%,
especially when they can ‘coat-tail’ more MP’s in with them.
Possible Swings to Labour
Auckland Central
If Jacinda Arden had have stayed in Auckland Central (in
2014 she only lost by 600 and it traditionally votes left) I would have called
it a definite swing to Labour. As it is, there has been some media speculation that newcomer Helen
White is in with a chance, which would be a big coup indeed considering Kaye’s
profile.
Likelihood - Somewhat Low
Maungakiekie
Maungakiekie has gone to the party forming the government in
every election since the start of MMP so as long as pundits are saying the
general election is too close to call it is hard to be confident. I had thought
that the Greens putting the high-profile Chloe Swarbrick in Maungakiekie
instead of Auckland Central but now that seat is also a possible gain for
Labour it is immaterial as she would have got more votes there than in
Maungakiekie.
Likelihood - Somewhat High
Christchurch Central
Nicky Wagner’s 2400 majority in 2014 would have suggested
she was likely to hold on but when combining Labour’s Jacinda-boost and a
relatively high-profile candidate in Duncan Webb, not to mention Wagner’s own
social media gaffes she is not looking to healthy. National even deemed it wise
not send her to her own electorate’s candidates’ debate, busing in Gerry
Brownlee. Bear in mind that the majority in 2005 was 410, 935 in 2008 and just
47 in 2011.
Likelihood - Somewhat High
Whanganui
At first glance, a 4000+ majority in a largely rural seat
suggest National should be relatively safe. However, if we use the pseudo-maths
of taking off a few votes as incumbent Chester Burrows is retiring, and taking
off a few more due to the Jacinda-boost, then it could be close. Simon Wilson
suggest that if Labour gets above 35% then they stand a chance of winning Whanganui but National would still have
to be favourites at this stage despite the recent poll.
Likelihood - Somewhat Low
Waiariki
Though Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell has held this
since 2005 a Labour poll had Tamati Coffey just a couple of points behind. Bear
in mind that the poll was taken before Adern became leader, so Flavell can’t be
complacent or the Māori Party may risk getting wiped out.
Likelihood - Tossup
Possible Swings to National
Napier
Stuart Nash worked very hard to win this seat back, and is
popular in Napier, partially because he is arguably the most conservative MP in
the Labour caucus. Nash had a majority of 3850 last election however, Garth
McVicar won 7000 votes for the Conservatives so it will be interesting to see
where those votes go.
Likelihood - Somewhat Low
Hutt South
Trevor Mallard wan by just 709 votes last election and he
has gone list only this time, while National’s Chris Bishop is well regarded.
Labour’s Ginny Anderson does seem to be capable however, nearly winning Ohariu
in 2014 so I think this one will be very close.
Likelihood - Tossup
Northland
This is hard to call, Winston won convincingly in the 2015
by-election but there were a particular set of circumstances that are not
necessarily present this time around. Before 2015, National had never lost the
seat since its creation, so it may go back to the status quo, especially if
Labour campaigns more vigorously.
Likelihood - High
Ohariu
One of the most significant seats before Dunne’s retirement
as although United Future was no longer bringing in multiple MP’s its party
vote was so low that Dunne being in parliament created an overhang. Despite
polls showing Labour was on track to win it off Dunne, with National
campaigning for the party vote again and the Greens running a last-minute
candidate it looks like they may be pipped at the post.
Likelihood - Somewhat Low
Possible Swing to Mana
Te Tai Tokerau (Handshake seat)
Some think Kelvin Davis’ promotion to deputy leader will
galvanise Māori support for Labour in the north but as a result, Harawira will
be campaigning on a ‘vote for me, get two MP’s’ now Davis is back on the party
list. Davis is certainly well regarded but only won with a razor thin majority
in 2014 and the Māori Party are not running to try and topple him. It may be
that without the association with Kim Dotcom Harawira is in with a chance to
reclaim his seat though I am loath to make a call before the upcoming poll.
Likelihood - Somewhat Low
Possible Swing to Māori
Te Tai Hauauru
Considering that this is Tariana Turia’s old seat it is
certainly not a safe bet for Labour, as shown by the recent poll that had the Māori
Party 13 points up. Though it is no certainty the seat will swing to Māori, it
will be significant if it did, if they win this and Waiariki then currently
party vote polls show Marama Fox would not get back in.
Likelihood - Tossup
Rotorua and Hamilton West are also often considered 'bellweather' seats, generally going to the winning party so if Labour wins then they may well win these seats as well. If Labour manages to stay up in the mid-forties then a few other seats may also swing inline with the national trend.
Rotorua and Hamilton West are also often considered 'bellweather' seats, generally going to the winning party so if Labour wins then they may well win these seats as well. If Labour manages to stay up in the mid-forties then a few other seats may also swing inline with the national trend.
Comments
Post a Comment