Current polling has Labour with an increased party vote share from 2014. With that usually comes a few more electorate wins but which ones will change hands and more importantly which will have an impact on the make-up of parliament? Much is made of swing-states or swing seats in the US and UK, the US election generally hinges on a few states such as Florida that determine the outcome of the election as the other states are reliably red or blue. New Zealand, being under MMP, has proportional representation so electorates do not tend to have a significant impact on the overall makeup of parliament apart from their ability to bring in parties polling below 5%, especially when they can ‘coat-tail’ more MP’s in with them. Possible Swings to Labour Auckland Central If Jacinda Arden had have stayed in Auckland Central (in 2014 she only lost by 600 and it traditionally vote
New Zealand's political system is based on the UK's but there is one key aspect of it that we have moved away from (besides an unelected upper house of titled aristocrats of course). In 1993 New Zealand voted to switch from first past the post (FPP) used a mixed member proportional system (MMP) to provide proportional representation through party lists that people voted for as well as their electorate MP. The UK still uses FPP with the make-up of the House of Commons being decided through 650 winner takes all elections across the country. Come election time people invariably bring up the inequalities of this system. In 2015 UKIP's 3.9 million votes netted them one seat while the DUP gained eight with 180 thousand votes. This happens as the candidate that gains a plurality of the vote in an electorate becomes their sole source of representation, even if most people don't like them. UK Election 2017 - North East Fife Constituency Here the SNP candidate will rep